I have a lingering suspicion Rafa won’t win Aus, and it’s probably good on health and safety grounds that he doesn’t win all four, as it will probably signal a new age of Fedal guerrilla wars.
If he does – you won’t hear the last of how the GOAT debate is effectively resolved. And to be fair, this will have been the most persuasive argument yet.
If he doesn’t – you might still persuasively resurrect a quantitative argument in Fed’s favour. (You might still choose to do that anyway)
In other words, nothing will have changed and we’ll all have missed out on something far better in favour of pointless, political posturing that would do the far right proud.
LEGEND
Top Guns
Red Hot Chilli Peppers
Young & Restless
Sympathy Vote
| Q1 | Rafa, Feli Isner, Steps, Cilic | Easy peasy. |
| Misha, Llodes Nalbie/Hewitt, Ferru | In accordance with AO philosophy Nalbie/Hewitt will go 5 sets finishing around sunrise the next day. Winner will be in no shape to play another match. Someone else will play Rafa in the quarters. | |
| Q2 | Sod, Istomin, Bellucci Ernie, Dolgo, Tsonga | I’ve got a contract out on the dickhead that suggested being bumped up to #4 would make life easy for Sod. WORST QUARTER EVER. |
| Melzer, Delpo, Baggy GGL, Muzz | Delpo opens against Sela after which he’ll more than likely play Baggy. I don’t expect him to win. Muzz will pick up the pieces in a match that shouldn’t go five sets but will. Again: WORST QUARTER EVER | |
| Q3 | Berd, Kohls, Harrison, Reeshard Kolya, Nishi, Tipsy, Dasco | Kohls aside, no one here can be relied on to play to their seeding. Personally, I’m for a Nishikori/Harrison breakthrough. Make it happen. |
| Almagro, Ljubicic Trotsky, Ivo, Djoko | Ivo likes playing tie-breaks and Trotsky almost put out Djoko in R1 of the last Slam he played him. Djoko’d be advised to hit the ground running. | |
| Q4 | ARod, Pico Wawa, Gael | Balanced section of the draw that will cancel each other out. Also, Gael will be diving though windows. Nothing else to see here folks. |
| Fish, Querrey Montanes, Brown, Simon, Fed | Easy peasy |
I don’t do bracketology, but here’s the next best thing:
-- Both Rafa and Fed are equal favourites. No one else is even close. Fed maybe marginally more so, simply because of the incredible (sub-Slam) winning streak he’s been on, and because it might take a little time for Rafa to work up to the impossibly high bar he set for himself last year.
-- Let’s be clear about this: Neither Fed nor Rafa have particularly tricky draws.
-- Rafa does have a greater proportion of players in his half that can beat both him and Fed – though he’s only on course to meet them in the second week, by which time most of them will have cancelled each other out.
-- If anything I’d say it’s Sod that’s been shafted – wasn’t being bumped up to #4 meant to make things easy? Suffice to say that any gains made by avoiding Fed and Rafa before the semis are now truly vapourised. Ditto Muzz who has all of 1200 points to defend. Seriously – worst quarter ever.
-- If Djoko survives early encounters with Ivo and Serbian-first-national-in-waiting Trotsky, things oughta get easier. One assumes he’ll have played himself into form to fend off whatever muted challenge Berd or Kolya can bring.
-- Kohls will take down Berd in R2. You just know he will.
-- For what it’s worth, I think Fed v Lacko will be a good match – bagelling Rafa in Doha was no fluke.
-- For what it’s worth (not very much considering his draw) I’ll be rooting for Muzz. Maybe even over Sod. Muzz turns 25 this year. Winning his first Slam cannot go on being “only a matter of time” for what is now approximately half a tennis career. Seriously, people are starting to talk.
-- Don’t muddy the waters by expecting anything from Nalbandian and Delpo.
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