2Hander's Take: The Men's Draw

I CAN FEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL IT!!!

[The reader is kindly referred to the opening line of Dr Dre and Snoop's 187/Deep Cover to get the real essence behind my intonations...]

Ahem! Sorry about that outburst, but the most eagerly awaited Slam for many a year gets underway tomorrow - and I can't wait!!

Looking at the Men's draw, you can be forgiven for assuming a 'boring' seed 1 VS 4 and 2 VS 3 semi-final line-up. However, the past three years have shown that the first Grand Slam event of the year tends to produce not only early upsets, but rogue, unexpected finalists {ie Baghdatis, Gonzalez and Tsonga}.

The first thing that caught my eye was the prospect of Nadal playing Gasquet in the 4th round I think it is. Then Hewitt VS Gonzalez, which I can't see the Chilean failing to win. Now, the top chunk could see a Nadal-Simon quarter, which would be interesting to see. That said, Monfils is also in that quarter - but he may face Youzhny in the 2nd round.

The second quarter is also very interesting with Murray, Tsonga and Gulbis! Topspin informs me that Tsonga has a back complaint!! However, he still plans on playing - let's hope it's nothing serious. I can't see any major threats in the early rounds apart from maybe Ljubicic and oh yeah, Andreev is also strong on hard courts. I don't know if the US Open just gone was a 'flash in the pan' for Nishikori, but keep him in mind as well.

The third quarter has our Nole, who will no doubt have a point to prove given that he is the reigning champion. He does NOT want to be a One Slam Wonder but his defeats early on this season to Gulbis and Nieminen may be niggling in his mind. What happened to the nerves of steel swagger he used to have on court? The only threat I can see him facing is the A-Rod but given their last encounter, I don't see him being tested much at all. Then again, never discount Baghdatis...

Last but not least, the final quarter. It's weird seeing The Fed all the way down there! The major talking point has to be the potential 3rd round meeting between Federer and Safin. It would be their first meeting in Melbourne since the 2005 semi-final. Now, of course it would depend on which Safin turns up, but then again it's Fed in a Slam - our Swiss friend has a major point to prove and a certain record to beat! There are quite a few other dangerous names there, like Robby Ginepri, Gilles Muller, Tipsarevic, Wawrinka...to name but a few.

So, GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMMMMMEEE ONNNN!!!!!

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The Missing 2nd Tier...

I'm depressed. For the first time in many years, I fear the Australian Open Women's Event is going to turn out be a damp squib.

We lost Sharapova to a now long running shoulder complaint. Our new 'world number one' has the sniffles, though I am keen to see how the 'bulking up' has affected her game. And Ivanovic still hasn't made the right kind of ripples.

There's still plenty to get excited about: Venus's quite public signalling of her intent to target both the number one ranking and the Slams that have eluded her. Safina's continued run of good form in Sydney, that saw her yesterday slug past Sugiyama in straight sets (just). Ditto, Dementieva who (perhaps needlessly) played a very high standard of tennis against a particularly out of sorts Serena Williams.

However it's not enough. A Slam requires not just leading ladies but also a stirring and colourful supporting cast. Those that read my review of 2008 must remember how frequently I appeared to sniff at the standard and quality of Women's Tennis, particularly at the higher profile events, which I mainly put down to Henin stepping down and Sharapova's shoulder.

One of the more pertinent problems I didn't mention there was to do with the relative absence of a 2nd tier of women all making a compelling case for top ten entry. If you think back to 2007 for a moment (seem's strangely distant now doesn't it), we had players like Peer, Golovin and Bartoli producing tennis that, though not always of a high quality, was for the most part riveting, and seemed to salvage some of the 'big event' feel at the Slams and Tier-1's.

Peer isn't the most talented player in the world but there was something uniquely entertaining witnessing her effervescent determination and ever-willingness to sweat out rallies she was always destined to lose. Golovin won her maiden title in 2007 and this was I hoped the beginning of those ever elusive 'good things' for her, but has unfortunately been sidelined with a back problem since early 2008; and as for Bartoli well, her win over Henin in a dramatic route to the final speaks volumes I think, about where her tennis was at, as well as the depths to which its now sunk.

We also had breakthrough years for Szavay (remember that route of Jankovic in the Beijing Final?) and Radwanska (the conqueror of Sharapova at Flushing Meadows, who did thankfully follow up in 2008). See where I'm coming from? All this vibrant, frenzied activity involved players ranked 10 through to around 30 in the rankings - the '2nd tier' of tennis. There was enough here to get your teeth into before we even began considering the main event of the day involving the Henins, Williams and Sharapovas of this world. I don't think we had anything remotely resembling that in 2008.

2008 did see the rise of Azarenka and Wozniacki. You can probably guess what I'm going to say about the former - I find her style of play, like Del Potro's on the men's side, both inflexible and uninspiring. An apprentice Maria. That means you Juan.

But Wozniacki's tennis is more stimulating, and may have what it takes to rejuvenate (in part) the lacklustre state of the Women's game. It's funny, but in 2008 she began to make the right kinds of noises on tour at exactly the moment I was becoming a little disillusioned with it, and has therefore slipped quietly under my tennis radar. In fact until yesterday's quarters at Sydney I hadn't seen her play at all, when in three quite tantalising sets she went toe-to-toe with Serena Williams, who was playing with an intensity quite unlike her subsequent match with Dementieva.

She lost the match, but seems to me to combine the best attributes of Ivanovic and Jankovic. She has the endurance, movement and defence of Jelena (if anything she seems 1/2 a step quicker) plus the shotmaking we know Ivanovic (on one of her better days) is capable of. She also (and I know these are first impressions) seems to have a good head on her shoulders. What!? A non-petulant 18 year old on the Women's Tour? Seems that way. (Ok Radwanska is quite well grounded too).

A good run from Wozniacki could instill some life into the Open, as could Venus making good on the quite attainable targets she's set herself. But an early exit for either of The Sisters or Safina could curtail our enjoyment quite abruptly.

Jankovic image by Jet Magbanua under licence
Wozniacki image by chascow

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The New Betting Scandal...

All the talk this week seems to be around the new "betting scandal" of tennis, which much to Fedora's chagrin, saw the bookies place Murray as joint favourite for the title in Melbourne.
Not going to get embroiled. Well maybe a little:

a) I love the fact that this has ruffled Fedora - it might actually motivate him into some kind of form. Hopefully without those junkhead forehands.

b) I don't share some of the more euphoric optimism of the UK Press in relation to Murray's chances at Melbourne - he's one of the top two contenders for sure, but it's just far too hot and gruelling (potentially seven 5-setters) out there for it to be that easy. I've been a long running critic of Murray's fitness (which has improved immensely by the way) and if as Federer said, a Slam's a different animal, the title at Melbourne has surely got to be considered a beast: a native Dingo perhaps, rather too ready to test Murray's physical state by chasing him to exhaustion.

c) In a more patriotic spirit though, I do rate Murray's chances and certainly don't think they can be dismissed away quite as easily as Federer does. Much as I understand his frustration at the (what at times must seem) stifling discussion on his 'demise', there's something very convincing about Murray's recent record against the top three; a record that IMO makes Federer's comparison with his 2005 semi final loss (cited as evidence of how things can unexpectedly unravel at Slams) quite moot.

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A Steadying of the Ship and other Good Things...

OK look, I know it's his fourth loss in a row to the man (three if you discount that exho in Abu Dhabi), I know you have to go w-a-a-y back to 2005 to find the last time he got the better of Murray in a 3 setter, and I know he's only beaten him once since then (although it was the US Open and their only 5 set encounter) but Federer's loss to Murray is not a big deal in the scheme of things, really it isn't.

A little embarrassing perhaps after this optimistic forecast he gave at the beginning of the week, and Murray now really must be promoted from mere bugbear-in-waiting status, as he supersedes Nadal as Federer's new Jabberwock, but it surely doesn't warrant engaging in the type of Fedora*-baiting we saw in some quarters last year.

I said before that we're now at more of a natural crossroads of tennis, far removed from the lavish performances of the 'ethereal era' (which now almost have a mythic Camelot like quality to them), and one which is likely to be characterised by a more dusty, businesslike unruly jostling for rank and titles between the top four and to a lesser extent the next tier, headed up by guys like Tsonga. I saw nothing in Federer's performance inconsistent with that prediction.

It only confirms what we already knew: that Murray has not just his number right now, but by the looks of things, his email address, his numerous home addresses and probably a whole set of other personal information. I don't expect Fedora will ever have a consistently winning record against Murray - I do however expect a steadying of the ship beginning around say, the clay court season.

***

Having whined a little about the season not really coming alive in my last posting, I was glad to find that all change this week when in a series of quite eclectic and revealing performances, the tennis suddenly really did come alive (particularly on Thursday during those quarter finals at Doha) not with a bang, but more with the reluctance of a hung over worker daunted by the realisation that the holiday season is now really over, and kinda gets their act together.

So far for me this season has had a kind of 'false start' quality to it characterised by seemingly defining performances that have mostly been followed by a subconscious seizing up, that seems to suggest that the players are experimenting with different gameplans and strategies they practised over the off-season but are still a little unsure of and unable (yet) to fully commit to.

Here's what I mean:

• Nadal, after delivering a quite inspired performance against Murray in the Abu Dhabi final, going out 4-6,4-6 to Monfils in Doha. I'm still however sticking with my prediction of good things happening on hard courts for Nadal this year.
• Monfils, having vanquished Nadal (who by the way didn't play that bad a match) mostly with on-demand backhand winners as blinding as they were improbable, going out with a sore back to Roddick in the semis. Good things really ought to happen for Monfils too this year. His performance was certainly more coming-of-age for me than Gulbis' much lauded dismantling of Djoko.
  
• Gasquet, after knocking off Tsonga in Brisbane (in what looks like either a remarkable comeback on Gasquet's part or yet more volatility from Tsonga) going down to Stepanek - who in this year's first venture into how'd-that-happen territory, then went on to win the tournament(!). I'm not dissing Stepanek, but I'm sure you'll agree, a somewhat ludicrous turnout for the books. Good things probably won't happen for Stepanek, unless of course he adds some voodoo to his already very toxic worm act. The real question is whether they'll ever happen for Gasquet.
  
• Mauresmo knocking off Ivanovic, and then withdrawing during her match against Bartoli with a thigh strain. I really want at least some good things to happen for Mauresmo before she calls time. This injury however, is not encouraging. I'm not sure where Ivanovic is with her game - all at sea perhaps? anyone see this match?
  
• Gulbis after his slightly hyped up win against Djoko, going down to Mathieu in what by most accounts was a fairly one sided encounter. Mathieu if his temperament didn't get in the way, strikes me as a quite underrated player and exactly the kind that good things ought to happen to - for Gulbis (as promising as he his), I feel they are still a year away.
• Oh, and good things appear to be happening for the A-Rod - I was rather unpatriotically, secretly cherishing the opportunity for a good'ol Fedora v A-Rod final.
  

* Fedoras are stylish, classic, vintage much like his style of play and this nickname is very much in keeping with his slightly fashion conscious persona;

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2Hander's Take: The 08-09 Season

Right, I have finally got my insane thoughts together on this...
Like I have said before, I cannot wait until this season starts properly (which for me IS the Aussie Open!). Allow me to start with the usual suspects:

Federer: I start with him because for me, he is still No.1! He has dominated the Tour for the past 5 or so years. He has the most complete game out of them all because he has shown that he is the best, or a fairly close 2nd best, on any surface. Now, hoping he doesn't have any illness/injuries, I think he will re-establish himself on the Tour (Slams & Masters events) once again. I also think he will regain the No.1 spot at some point, However, given the progress of Djokovic and now Murray, it looks likely to change hands fairly frequently over the next 3 years at least.

I am glad the playing field has been evened out now. But I can't help but feel that Fed's inconsistency and thence mental blocks against lower ranked players is still a thorn in his side. When he's on form, he's unstoppable, even against Nadal - end of. His relative decline as king must have been hard to deal with (maybe he's still dealing with it!), but once he gets past it, starts to enjoy his tennis (like at the US this year), I hope the genius will come back rejuvenated.

However, I reckon he needs to sort out two vital elements to his game:

1) He needs to start coming to net a lot more regularly as his exquisite volleying is what earned him his first Wimby title.

2) The forehand. What happened to the once 'best shot in tennis'?!? Sort it out, Fed...it's on you, you know what to do!!

Nadal:

His improvement over the past year is summed up in one word: scary! I am a fan of his as he plays with heart, yet with signs of raw talent...bordering on genius! I LOVE his inside out forehand (on ALL surfaces) which just skims over the net and is always spinning away from his opponent. Although his volleying improved no end at Wimby 08, he actually won the final without having to do any. I would like to see this side of his game come out more this year, for this would be key to him winning a hard court Slam.

On clay, I can't see anybody stopping him this year. On paper, he is most likely to do a calendar Slam - by sheer virtue of RG being 'in the bag'!!

He's not even a natural left-hander!!!!!

Plus it will take me a while to get used to the sleeves!! HAHA!

Djokovic:

After winning the Aussie, he rather underachieved. The best match I saw him play last year had to be the Queen's final with Nadal. Recently though, his body language on court is almost like he has lost the will to live! I know that media spat he had with Roddick at the US must have had an effect on him but prior to that, he lost to Murray in Cincinnati, not to mention exiting Wimby at the 2nd round. Apart from the extremities, last year was not a good year for him - only to redeem himself in Shanghai, just in time maybe...?

Nonetheless, he's always a contender for any tournament he plays in and if certain things go his way, there is nothing stopping him from bagging a few this year.

Murray:

Well, Andy Boy has come leaps and bounds this year, all in the latter half of the year, mind you. After an early Aussie Open exit and not much of a show at RG, he had an OK Wimby til he met Nadal and was totally outclassed. Then came the North American hard court season where he had a storming run with a title win at Cincinnati, semi-finalist at Toronto and finally runner-up at Flushing Meadow.

It would be good to see him develop his clay court game as he has the qualities of a good dirtballer. He can grind out rallies (he wore out Nadal for pity's sake!! OK it wasn't on clay...) and then out of nowhere hit a deadly winner down the line! Against Nadal in Abu Dhabi, he finished quite a few points at the net. He's beaten Fed quite a few times this year, plus his record against him is rather enviable.

Many greats of the game think that Murray's time to win a Slam has now come, we'll just have to wait and see...

And apparently he's not a natural righty!!!

The rest:

I would have to start with Tsonga as he started last year with a bang, but faded away afterwards largely due to injury. His level of talent is still undiscovered (by him as well?!). He's got a big serve, he's got a strong forehand and backhand and he can volley!!!

Some may say I am being hard on Davydenko but for me, he is no more than a semi-finalist - particularly at a Slam! He's got sound and consistent groundstrokes, OK volleying now and again and an alright serve. I can't see him winning a Slam, maybe a Masters event or two...

There still may be another Slam left in Roddick, but I honestly can't see it coming this year. By virtue of the rest of the field being so much stronger, he may reach the odd semi and win the odd Masters event.

Also, I do like Blake as well. He looks like a b-ball player, be he bald-headed, dreadlocked or 'froed out! Mind you, Jason Kidd is his best friend. Right, as for his tennis, he has shown that on his day, he can beat the best. I can't help but feel that he has a lack of self-confidence at times. Still, he is a great sportsman and I hope that he doesn't get mentally scarred by his experience of lack of sportsmanship at the Olympics - HAHA!

Speaking of which, I am also a great fan of the Gonzalez forehand. I can see the odd Slam semi from him this year, maybe even an outside odds final - but doubtful. Still, that's a SICK forehand!!

Gulbis is my new found star of the last year. Has great movement on court for one of his height. Not to mention good groundstrokes and a great serve. Once again, perhaps a Slam semi and a Masters final.

This year has shown that Safin can NEVER be discounted, depending on which one turns up!

I'll dedicate a paragraph to the other French boys. Unfortunately, I haven't seen much of Simon playing, although he has had some notable victories last year. It would be good to see him build on this. Gasquet has faded into the background quite considerably, I am tentative on his progress this year. Though it would be a great shame if he already peaked! I am a fan of Monfils ever since he won Junior Wimby. It was good seeing him skid around the red dirt of RG last year. He's got a wicked serve (don't you think his action is similar to A-Rod?), good groundstrokes and fairly good volleying. I hope he also fulfils his potential sooner rather than later.

WOW! That could be a scary Davis Cup line in years to come...

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The Importance of Being Ernests...

I have to admit I haven't yet fully embraced the new season.

This is partly due I suppose to the fact that the Abu Dhabi final will be a very difficult act to follow. (I doubt we'll see anything come close until the Aussie Open).

I'm still also seething however at Sky's rather selective and questionable coverage of the Hopman Cup - they omitted both Safina's opening singles match in full as well as the Russian Siblings' pairing in their much anticipated doubles encounter - something I've been looking forward to for months; and in favour of what exactly? A fairly dull affair involving Cibulkova and Shaughnessy.

I'm not sure what to make of Marat's scuffle in Moscow - on the one hand as a fan it concerns me that his last year (and by extension his legacy) will be tarnished by the episode; but I also really liked the fact that he didn't use it as an excuse to shy away from the event and played some of his best tennis sporting a pair of shiners (one yellow one black) that by some bizarre twist of fate coordinated fully with his bee-coloured Adidas outfit. Very heart-on-your-sleeve.

I suppose I ought to comment too on Djoko's early loss in Brisbane. I didn't see the match (no coverage of Brisbane here) but although the early loss of such a top seed normally warrants the raising at the very least of a bemused eyebrow, you can often easily explain it away as a consequence of an extended lay-off, too much wine perhaps and maybe some over confidence that suggests the need for nothing more than a tiny attitudinal shift: time to maybe stop 'easing-into' the new season.

I'd be happy with this explanation except for the fact that he was playing Gulbis, and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one waiting for his particular genie to emerge from it's bottle. Of all the lauded newcomers displaying promise, Gulbis in my mind, has the most potential (I'd say Tsonga, except he's already begun to realise his promise). I don't care if he takes his time, in fact I'd prefer a slower and more enduring rise to the top.I'm not sure why he beat Djoko, but I do hope it was due in part to a less callous attitude to his shotmaking, which perhaps more than anything else, is what has held him back.

One last thing, can someone tell Giles Simon to get a haircut? His new shaggy 'look' if that's what it is, is only slightly better than Andy Murray's 'Napoleon Dynamite' episode, and he's certainly not the mad and eccentric genius that can get away with anything....

Djokovic image by tripletrouble

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Steady on Chaps! It's only an Exhibition...

I'm still reeling from the effects of what I saw this weekend. But before I get into that, take a look at this view of the sunset at Abu Dhabi this weekend: it's just as arousing and hypnotic as the tennis featured there. You can see the image in it's full glory at momentaryawe's blog. Stunning.


Ok, back to the tennis. I expected quality - any tournament showcasing 6 of the current top 10 is bound to conjure up something special. But let's be honest, this was meant to be an exho (when was the last time one of those truly stirred you up?), a venue to allow players to ease themselves into the new season (I'm assuming Bodo wrote that before the final), and well, it was just the third day back from the off season for Pistol-Pete's sake!

It's always a mistake to think that what takes place in an exho matters very much - but I just don't see how you can pretend to think that the final in Abu Dhabi doesn't have a bearing on the Australian Open, or for that matter the rest of the year.

I'm pretty sure I haven't seen such an electric atmosphere at any exho, made all the more special by the fact that it wasn't the theatrics (usually associated with such an informal event - think Leconte and Bahrami) that brought the crowd to their feet; it was the quality of the players' tennis and their determination to win a match with no ATP points at stake.

For those that didn't see it, get out there and find a recording immediately - flog the family silver if you have to, just do whatever's necessary to get a look in at what went on here. It'll probably go down as one of the best matches of the year - and that's no exaggeration. The commentators were out of superlatives and by 3-3 in the final set (an especially electrifying game featuring amongst other things an attempted hotdog by Nadal) were reduced to making incomprehensible cooing noises as they tried to readjust their expectations and make some sense of what they were seeing.

Murray appears to have simply picked up from where he left off: if anything there's a more compelling robustness and purposeful dogged determination about his game, a product no doubt of his very busy off season in Miami; and after his defeat of Federer only a day before I expected something special.

But it's Nadal that really impressed. Just what idiot was it, that said he's not a contender for a hard court slam? Oh wait a minute, that would be me.

I suppose it wasn't the fastest court in the world and that probably helped, but he was playing opposite arguably currently the best hard court player in the word, and normally in the face of such aggression we see him scrambling after balls three or four metres behind the baseline. His shots tend to lose some of their bite, becoming more and more loopy and scarcely landing beyond his opponent's service line.

None of that here. Even his defensive shots had a depth and purpose to them we don't often see. It was perhaps his most aggressive and convincing recent hard court performance - he did win Toronto I suppose, but I've always put that down to his riding the wave of confidence and momentum he had at that point in the year.

I also found myself pleasantly surprised at Nadals new sleeved'n'collared look. I've often found myself wishing he never tries anything like it and sometimes shuddering at the thought that he would- but was amazed to see it actually worked.

It gives Nadal more of an air of dignity that I think is quite consistent with his now statesmanlike position in the game. Ok, maybe he is still a little fresh faced for that description but I think you know what I mean. He's just about now beginning to lose some of that boyishness that is such a large part of his appeal, and as he transitions into the middle segment of his career, may need something a little different. With a few exceptions (Blake and Moya), I don't like sleeveless tops on anyone over the age of 23, but I think we all know he's capable of pulling off that bright and slightly impetuous look if he needs to go back to it.

Federer's performance wasn't bad - not great (still a little too many of 'those' forehands), but he was beaten by Roddick at an exho in Kooyong in 2007 and we all know what happened at Melbourne thereafter. So I'm going to reserve judgement and still consider him very much a contender.

It's old Djoko that I'm really interested in as he's chosen against playing Qatar in favour of Brisbane. I personally would much rather see him up against Federer and Nadal (I really should get into the habit of saying Nadal and Federer) - a deliberate decision to try and regain some confidence maybe? Only trouble with that theory is that a certain Mohammad Ali lookalike is also playing there and last time I looked its Djokovic that was on the receiving end of some of those proverbial (and rather painful) bee stings.

I'm really wishing he emerges from his recent slump - I think the top of the tour is better for his (sometimes a little too) colourful presence there. But one thing's for certain: Murray's really thrown down the gauntlet, and the resonance of the subsequent thud would have caused all but the very pigheaded to take note.

If anything, Nadal and Murray may have actually set the bar a little too high. If the tennis at Melbourne is half as good as it was in that final at Abu Dhabi, we'll have good cause to cheer. I hope I'm wrong but I've a feeling that this little exho final may turn out to be a contender for the that match of this year .

Abu Dhabi image by momentaryawe
Nadal image by REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah (UNITED ARAB EMIRATES)

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